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Inflation can be measured both in terms of dollars in existence (which he is measuring) and in terms of prices, which the CPI purports to measure. I'm not sure what you think inflation means, but it has nothing to do with whatever it is you think you're calculating. For people in less skilled positions things are much more dire - and contrary to some politicians' propaganda and excuse making, this is not due to corporate raiders or evil capitalists - any more than sharks are the cause of tsunamis. that is inflation - again closer to 8% than to the 2% or 3% promulgated by the government. Similarly, the cost of electronics has dropped precipitously - but that is the result of technical advancement, which (again Econ 101) is the _sole_ method of improving the standard of living in a modern economy.Įven more simply - the wages of carpenters and software engineers (for example) have both risen by a factor of 5 to 10, while the actual standard of living for people in those jobs has remained the same or dropped in that same period. When (not if) the worker in Thailand has the same standard of living as the US worker, those jeans will be well over $100 in the US. The price of many goods has remained the same - I can buy jeans at Walmart today for about the same price as Levi's in 1970 - but that's a false example, as it depends on the _temporary_ distortion of wage scales around the world. Knock of 25% of that for vaunted new capabilities, safety, whatever, that's 6%, still more than twice the official rate. That works out to about 8% inflation over the last 40 years. (One can argue about features, but it's a reasonable comparison). Today the VW 'New Beetle' (essentially the same car) starts at $18995, ten times as much. In 1968 a Volkswagen Beetle was $1800 base price. Just as a somewhat-related example (not rigorous, just indicative) showing the long term discrepancies, look at the average price of cars 1970 to today. It's an ongoing topic of frustration and derision for many economists.
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There are lots of academic papers and popular articles and even books, showing the both the official 'core inflation' and CPI numbers are completely divorced from reality and have been for years. This is the classic symptom of the inflationary spiral, starting to exceed the system's ability to damp itself. I'm not saying it's new, just that we've entered a new phase where the second order effects are becoming significant - the rate must increase at a faster and faster rate to prevent collapse. That is the definitive cause of inflation. People and institutions are getting paid without producing anything. It will remain hidden for a while, but you can't print money at that rate and not have it show up in inflation.
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So the CPI is basically imaginary, like the Unemployment numbers, which don't include anyone who has used up their unemployment benefits or just gave up looking.) (I would just add that minor items such as the cost of fuel and housing are not included in the Consumer Price Index, and a lot of other factors are fudged. Be prepared to pay a LOT more for goods in the near future. IOW, our economy is now being inflated at 12% per year (I'm going with the number I recollect). I'm too lazy to go back and look up the numbers again.) If 60% of spending is borrowed, rather than 40%, then that would be about right. (Actually my memory says that the number is more than 12% but I don't know which of the above is incorrect. 6*.4*.4 = 9.6% of the GDP is pure inflationary money-printing. The Federal Reserve is essentially printing money by loaning this imaginary money to the US. 60% of that borrowing is being lent by the Federal Reserve, as the world's appetite for US government debt is no longer enough to swallow it all.Ĥ. The US Government spending is now over 40% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).Ģ. I might add that, as of a month or so ago (last time I checked), the following items were true - from memory, so I I may be a bit off:ġ.